Former President Donald Trump is favored to win the 2024 presidential elections according to Polymarket, with a 56 percent probability.
In comparison, the same research found that President Joe Biden has a 37 percent chance.
RealClear Polling data shows a narrow lead for Trump over Biden by 1.1 percent in a head-to-head matchup. Polymarket stands out as a platform where users engage in predictive betting on global happenings.
Polymarket lists Michelle Obama at 4 percent, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 2 percent, and Kamala Harris at 1 percent as contenders in the election.
Bettors need to stake 57 cents on Trump to win $1 and 37 cents on Biden for the same return. The odds suggest bettors favor a Trump victory by a significant margin.
Polymarket also indicated a 63 percent likelihood of a guilty verdict in Trump’s ongoing hush-money trial, depicting a notable decrease from 87 percent in late April.
This data signals a prevalent belief that Trump’s legal battles will culminate in a conviction, portraying a widespread sentiment regarding the prosecution’s handling of the situation.
Bettors show conflicting views on Trump’s future, with some predicting guilt and others a return to the presidency. However, these differing outlooks are not necessarily due to cognitive dissonance.
Trump’s narrow lead over Biden in polls expands when considering additional contenders, with RealClear Polling data showing his consistent lead in key swing states like Arizona, Nevada, and others.
Recent trends indicate a shift in formerly Democratic strongholds like New Hampshire and Minnesota towards Trump, positioning them as key swing states in the upcoming election.
Similarly, traditionally deep-blue states such as New Jersey and New York are showing signs of potential change. Despite Biden’s significant wins in these states in the 2020 election, Trump’s recent substantial rallies have narrowed Biden’s lead to single digits.
Virginia, a state Biden comfortably secured in 2020, now sees Trump and Biden tied in a recent poll, highlighting the evolving dynamics of voter sentiments.
Essentially, these bettors have gauged the public sentiment. They acknowledge a growing awareness among Americans regarding what they perceive as oppressive authoritarian tactics employed by the establishment.
Their betting behavior reflects this insight. If they held a different expectation, they would place their bets on a conviction and a subsequent victory for Biden in the upcoming election.
