The leading economic index (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.8 percent in October, marking the 19th consecutive monthly decline, indicating a potential recession.
Economists had expected a milder decrease.
The index’s trajectory remained negative due to various factors, including deteriorating consumer expectations, lower ISM Index of New Orders, falling equities, and tighter credit conditions. (Trending: Donald Trump Gets Great News Ahead of 2024)
Senior Manager Justyna Zabinska-La Monica said, “The US LEI trajectory remained negative, and its six- and twelve-month growth rates also held in negative territory in October.”
“Among the leading indicators, deteriorating consumers’ expectations for business conditions, lower ISM Index of New Orders, falling equities, and tighter credit conditions drove the index’s most recent decline,” added the Business Cycle Indicators executive.
“After a pause in September, the LEI resumed signaling recession in the near term,” explained Zabinska-La Monica.
Adding, “The Conference Board expects elevated inflation, high interest rates, and contracting consumer spending—due to depleting pandemic saving and mandatory student loan repayments—to tip the US economy into a very short recession. We forecast that real GDP will expand by just 0.8 percent in 2024.”
The LEI is once again signaling a recession in the near term, expected to be mild due to factors such as elevated inflation, high interest rates, and contracting consumer spending.
The Conference Board forecasts a modest 0.8 percent real GDP expansion in 2024.
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