NATO’s military chief, Admiral Rob Bauer, emphasized that society needs to be prepared for potential conflict, not just the military.
He highlighted the need for public readiness, including stocking up on essentials like radios, torches, and water.
Bauer stressed that war is a societal event, and the public should understand their role in preparedness.
“The big difference with a year ago is a lot of things have happened in the armed forces and defence organisations. What hasn’t happened is in our societies, the understanding that it is more than the military that has to be able to operate in a conflict or in a war. It is the whole of a society that will get involved whether we like it or not,” Bauer said.
“The people, they have to understand they play a role. Society is part of the solution… you need to have water, you need to have a radio on batteries, you need to have a flashlight with batteries to make sure you can survive the first 36 hours. Things like that, that’s simple things but it starts there.”
“I’m not going to say everything is going to go wrong tomorrow, but we have to realise it is not a given that we are in peace”, he said, adding that “not everything is plannable, not everything is going to be hunky-dory for the next 20 years.”
He also discussed Russia’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the need to support Ukraine.
“We need to understand as a society that war and fighting is not only something of the military. The nation needs to understand that when it comes to a war such as we see in Ukraine, it is a whole of society event. For many many decades we had this idea that we had the professional military and they would solve the security issues that we have, in Afghanistan, in Iraq. But if you talk collective defence, it is a whole of society event.”
“It will not be enough to have the present military, you will need more people from society to sustain the military in terms of people. You need the industry to have enough ammunition, to produce new tanks, new ships, new aircraft, new artillery pieces… the big difference with a year ago is a lot of things have happened in the armed forces and defence organisations. What hasn’t happened is in our societies, the understanding that it is more than the military that has to be able to operate in a conflict or in a war. It is the whole of a society that will get involved whether we like it or not.”
“These warnings of a turbulent 20 years come despite Russia having, in Bauer’s words, failed to achieve “any of their strategic objectives” in Ukraine. Both sides “are in a phase where it is not moving a lot” and Russia in the next year is going to struggle to find the right “quality” of people to replace the better-trained veteran troops it has already lost in the war.”
“I don’t think we should expect a miracle happening on either side… it is going to be difficult. We need to continue to support Ukraine, that is the most important thing that all of us need to realise.” Bauer said.
Additionally, he and U.S. General Christopher Cavoli acknowledged Russia’s ability to regenerate its military forces, despite challenges from sanctions.
“The tectonic plates of power are shifting. As a result: we face the most dangerous world in decades. Anything can happen at any time, an era in which we need to expect the unexpected, an era in which we need to focus on effectiveness in order to be fully effective,” he said.
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