The former commander of the UK’s Joint Forces Command warned that Ukraine faces a serious risk of outright defeat by Russia in 2022.
With the war entering its third year and Ukraine badly outnumbered and outgunned, he said public morale and will to fight could decline to the point of admitting defeat.
The failures of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in 2021 allowed Russia to regroup for another major offensive expected this summer, aimed at breaking through Ukrainian lines with the goal of taking more territory like Kharkiv.
The British general noted Russia’s five-to-one artillery and ammunition advantage, as well as upgraded Soviet-era “dumb bombs” playing a key destructive role.
Ukraine’s top general acknowledged the Eastern Front situation has significantly worsened following Putin’s election win and warmer weather.
“And when it gets to that point, why will people want to fight and die any longer, just to defend the indefensible?” General Sir Richard Barrons asked.
“At some point this summer,” Barrons said, “we expect to see a major Russian offensive, with the intent of doing more than smash forward with small gains to perhaps try and break through the Ukrainian lines.”
“And if that happens we would run the risk of Russian forces breaking through and then exploiting into areas of Ukraine where the Ukrainian armed forces cannot stop them.”
While still lobbying the West for more aid, he recognized Ukraine will face challenges training new conscripts quickly enough to match the Russian forces.
