President Biden’s average approval rating of 40.3% is well below the historic 50% threshold for an incumbent president to win reelection.
His rating is lower than the previous three presidents’ ratings at the same point in their first terms.
“In 2020 the richest third of voters favoured the Dems for the first time, and the Republicans improved with the poorest,” Financial Times columnist John Burn-Murdoch wrote on X. “The GOP now appeals to working- and middle-class voters of all ethnicities.”
Gallup data shows only two presidents with approval ratings under 40% at reelection lost.
While political dynamics are realigning, with Democrats losing ground with some minority groups and Republicans improving with working-class voters, Trump-led realignment appears to be showing in 2024 swing state polls where Trump leads or is tied with Biden.
“Trump upended the traditional party alignment in 2016 with a cultural appeal to white working class voters that simultaneously repulsed the denizens of America’s upper-income, college-educated suburbs. This continued in 2020, when Trump’s working class coalition was joined by millions of nonwhite voters, while Democrats continued to count more of the college educated in their ranks,” wrote Patrick Ruffini, cofounder of Echelon Insights.
Trump argued voters want security and that Biden has let dangerous people into the country, posing security risks.
“They don’t feel safe with this lunatic,” Trump said. “He’s a terrible president. He’s the worst president in history. … I believe they want security.”
“We have, I believe, 15 million more people in here,” Trump added. “Many of them came out of jails, prisons, and many of them came out of mental institutions, and — as I say it in the speeches — insane asylums. You have many terrorists coming into our country. We’re going to pay a big price for this.”
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