Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley campaigned against Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican primary, arguing that he couldn’t win the general election because he consistently lost around a third of the GOP vote.
However, historical examples show that primary performances are not always indicative of general election outcomes.
“He lost 40% of the primary vote in all of the early states,” she said. “You can’t win the general election if you can’t win that 40% [back].”
“If states like Colorado and Michigan and Minnesota want to start winning again, you have to have someone on the ticket who can win a general election,” she said. “Donald Trump cannot win.”
While Trump lost significant portions of the Republican vote to Haley in some states, past presidents like Obama, Bush, and Clinton all struggled in early primary states but went on to win large majorities of their party in the general election.
Primaries often feature fractured voting as candidates vie for support, but parties typically unite behind the nominee.
So Haley’s assertion that Trump’s primary losses meant certain defeat may have overlooked this pattern and downplayed the likelihood that many Republican primary voters who rejected Trump would still back him over Biden in November.
“No matter what some of these voters are saying today, when the time comes and the choice becomes Donald Trump or Joe Biden, our belief is that the vast majority of Nikki Haley’s voters will end up voting for Donald Trump,” an unnamed Trump ally said.
“[It’s] very similar to how, if you recall, there were many Ted Cruz voters who in the middle of that primary claim they would never vote for Donald Trump, yet, when the time came, the vast majority of them all came home,” they said.
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