A pollster analyzed recent survey data showing significantly worse results for Biden’s approval and reelection prospects than reported.
Key groups are abandoning Biden in favor of Trump, whose support is rising among Hispanics and those under 35.
“The Suffolk/USAToday Poll is showing what we’re all seeing, which is NOT a normal weak showing 1-year out for an incumbent president seeking re-election,” pollster Richard Baris wrote on X.
Biden is far below where Obama and Trump stood at this point.
Enthusiasm is also lower for Biden. Nikki Haley has surpassed Ron DeSantis in popularity.
“Historically, he’s far below Barack Obama at this point (who won) and significantly lower than Donald Trump (who lost). H.W. Bush was higher, but his approval was falling RAPIDLY from far higher than Biden has ever been,” Baris said.
“It’s not just that these demographic groups are ‘abandoning’ Joe Biden. Donald Trump is gaining among key Democratic constituencies, Hispanic, Under 35. It’s the one poll NOT showing gains among Black voters. Clearly he is in the consensus,” Baris added.
“I’d just also note that ‘enthusiasm’ and ‘voting likelihood’ are not the same thing. Higher turnout benefits Trump. People need to get used to understanding that now,” he wrote.
“Lastly, while they are just reshuffling the bottom of the deck, Nikki Haley has overtaken Ron DeSantis nationally. Almost identical to our latest results @BIGDATAPOLL,” he said.
Separate polls frame Biden as a “nothing” candidate compared to Trump being seen as representing the economy, power and revenge.
Ongoing investigations into Trump appear to be backfiring, fueling perceptions he faces wrongful persecution and turning him into a martyr-like figure akin to Nelson Mandela, boosting his popularity.
“Nearly 7 in 10 voters, or 69%, believe that politics ‘has played’ a role in the four indictments against Trump, according to a new survey shared with Secrets,” the Washington Examiner’s Paul Bedard wrote.
“Voters are angered at what they see as Democratic strong-arm tactics to take out America’s most popular politician with legal and political tactics and believe that President Joe Biden and his Justice Department are behind it,” he wrote.
“Biden is trying to make Donald Trump the Nelson Mandela of America,” Trump pollster John McLaughlin said.
Most voters believe politics influenced the indictments and Biden’s involvement, angering many and boosting Trump.
The data suggests Biden’s position is much weaker than acknowledged.
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