A new election forecast predicts Donald Trump will win over 300 electoral votes in 2024, flipping key swing states from 2020.
Decision Desk HQ’s analysis cited polls showing Trump winning Nevada, Arizona, and the crucial “blue wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
This would give Trump over 300 electoral votes, the most for a GOP candidate since 1988.
#SCOTUS ruling is a gift to Trump, even if the Justices ultimately rule against him on immunity. A decision in late June makes a DC trial on 1/6 issues nearly impossible. 3/25 NYC trial in the Stormy case will be the only Trump criminal trial before Election Day.
— Jeffrey Toobin (@JeffreyToobin) February 28, 2024
However, Trump still faces legal challenges, including charges in New York, Georgia and from the Jan. 6 committee.
But the Supreme Court agreeing to hear Trump’s case on presidential immunity could freeze most proceedings until after the election.
Statistician and Data Science Professor, Liberty Vittert, said, “Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania all went to Trump by less than a point in 2016 and then flipped back in favor of Biden by very narrow margins in 2020. They proved decisive in both of those elections.”
Vittert said, “Had Hillary Clinton held the states in 2016, she would have defeated Trump, and had Biden failed to flip these back in 2020, Trump would be in a second term right now.”
While a ruling against Trump is still possible, the delayed timeline benefits him politically by avoiding criminal trials in the run up to 2024.
Newsweek reported, “The 312 electoral votes Trump is predicted to win would be more than the 306 Biden achieved in 2020, as well as the 304 Trump was awarded during his 2016 election victory over Clinton. The largest-ever presidential victory in terms of electoral votes was achieved by Ronald Reagan in 1984, who won 525 out of the possible 538 electoral votes after winning all but one of the 50 states in a resounding victory over Walter Mondale.”
Politico’s Kyle Cheney said, “The court’s decision to keep the pretrial proceedings frozen is a blow to special counsel Jack Smith’s effort to bring Trump to trial this year. Smith has charged Trump with four felonies stemming from his bid to subvert the 2020 presidential election.”
The forecasts are worrying signs for Biden’s reelection chances given concerns over his age and approval ratings.
