Recent polling suggests promising news for Donald Trump, but American University professor Allan Lichtman argues that Joe Biden holds an edge based on historical “keys” to victory.
Five of the 13 predictors favor Biden, while three favor Trump, leaving the rest undecided. If “true,” they are given a “key,” and if “false,” their competitor receives the point.
Lichtman’s analysis factors in Biden’s incumbency, policy changes, and economic growth, while also considering potential challenges such as foreign policy, military success, and the absence of a major scandal.
THIS ABSOLUTELY BLEW MY MIND.🤯 This Homeslice, Allan Lichtman 👇predicted Trump's victory in 2016 and also predicted Trump losing in 2020. WATCH to see how he did it and his amazing record at predicting the next president. It's important to note that his prediction for the 2024… pic.twitter.com/oVba95qbpE
— TheRealBiffBifford 🇺🇸 (@TBifford) January 30, 2024
He refrains from making a definitive prediction but expects to call the race in early August based on these “keys.”
“Allan Lichtman, an election prognosticator who has correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984, developed a formula that is used to make predictions about an upcoming presidential election – and in many cases, it proves to be accurate,” the NY Post reported.
Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House” consists of 13 true or false questions.
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