The Biden administration and European officials are shifting focus from supporting Ukraine’s total victory over Russia to improving its position in future negotiations to end the war.
This shift involves discussions about redeploying Ukrainian forces for a stronger defensive position against Russian forces, bolstering defense systems, and resurrecting Ukraine’s defense industry.
The administration aims to help Ukraine have a stronger hand in negotiations while also navigating political challenges. (Trending: Trump Releases Must-See Christmas Message)
“That’s been our theory of the case throughout — the only way this war ends ultimately is through negotiation,” a White House spokesperson said.
“We want Ukraine to have the strongest hand possible when that comes.”
“We want them to be in a stronger position to hold their territory. It’s not that we’re discouraging them from launching any new offensive,” they added.
“Those discussions [about peace talks] are starting, but [the administration] can’t back down publicly because of the political risk” to Biden, said a congressional official who is familiar with the administration’s thinking and who was granted anonymity to speak freely.
“We are having literally daily conversations with the Ukrainians about the battlefield, about what their needs are and their intentions,” head of strategic communications at the National Security Council John Kirby said.
“I’m not going to telegraph to the Russians what the Ukrainian strategy is in the coming months,” he added.
With military support waning, the U.S. is focused on helping Ukraine both offensively and defensively.
The potential for a compromise with Russia and the threat of Ukraine’s NATO membership are key factors in these discussions.
“Biden’s victory comment has the virtue of being true,” said George Beebe, former chief of Russia analysis for the CIA.
But “time has become a stark disadvantage when it comes to Ukraine’s manpower and industrial capacity, and that’s true even if the West continues its support. The longer this goes on the more we’re going to have to concede up front just to get the Russians to the negotiating table.”
“It’s very likely that going to a defensive posture would allow the Ukrainians to conserve resources while making future Russian progress look unlikely,” said intelligence expert Anthony Pfaff.
“President Biden has been very clear that NATO will be in Ukraine’s future,” said Kirby.
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