A significant migration of people from the Northeast and Midwest to Florida, largely conservatives leaving Democratic states, has led to a rightward shift in the state’s politics.
This movement is driven by political alignment, with many retirees attracted to Florida’s conservative reputation.
The influx has impacted demographics and voter registration, contributing to a more Republican-leaning state. (Trending: Democrat Targets U.S. Troops With New Gun Control Law)
Matt Isbell, a Democratic elections analyst said, “The notion of the ‘Big Sort’ … is really proving itself.”
“That’s the idea that people move based on the politics. … For a lot of retirees, places like Florida are appealing, especially if they’re already conservative,” he continued.
J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said, “Given Florida’s reputation, or at least what DeSantis has tried to sell it as, with the ‘Free State of Florida’ [slogan] … if I’m a retiree, that’s what I associate Florida with.”
Isbell said, “If you’re a liberal retiree up in the Northeast, if you’re Jewish retiree in New York City right now, you see this stuff out of Florida, the Nazis and stuff, do you really think you’re going to come down here?”
“The Villages does not have a mandate that you must be a registered Republican to live there, there’s no litmus test,” added the analyst.
“But if you’re a liberal retiree, you probably don’t care to move there, so it becomes kind of self-sorting,” explained Isbell.
Florida’s cultural and political landscape, influenced by Governor DeSantis, has also played a role in this shift.
Similar trends are observed in Texas, albeit in the opposite direction, with the state becoming more left-leaning.
These demographic changes will likely affect future congressional district reapportionment.
Former Gov. Lawton Chiles said Polk County, “used to be more of a rural, Democratic type of county.”
“You have a lot of migrants now from the Midwest there who don’t really have any attachment to that Democratic tradition. They vote Republican,” said the former Democratic lawmaker.
Chiles said, “Well, those same types of voters have been moving to Florida. Those types of trends don’t happen in a vacuum,” about Trump’s 2016 victory.
Daniel A. Smith, the political science chair at the University of Florida, said, “Much of that can be put on the shoulders of DeSantis, for raising these issues that most of these transplants don’t give a hoot about.”
Coleman said, “If you’re attracting more fiscally conservative, culturally moderate voters? They still vote for Republicans.”
“And if you vote for the Republicans, you don’t just get their fiscal policies, you get some of their social policies those voters would maybe have to hold their noses for,” added the political analyst.
“I still think they’ve overplayed their hand with it a bit,” said Isbell.
“But the demographics will determine how governments operate. And the demographics of Florida right now say that while it’s not a Bible Belt state … you have retirees [in Central and South Florida] that are willing to just kind of go along with that,” he continued.
Smith explained, “These are folks who generally have paid high property taxes, they’ve gotten their children through public schools, and now they’re looking to wipe their hands clean.“
“They’re happy to go into their gated communities and put those days behind them,” said Smith.
“Florida came from the center, maybe leaning Democratic in the ‘90s, and moved further to the right, and then Texas has moved a bit further to the left,” explained Isbell.
“But they’re both still right of the country,” he added. “One of my hot takes for the next election is that I would not be surprised if Texas ends up being closer than Florida,” said Coleman.
Jim Henson, director of The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, said, “The inner line suburbs are getting more Democratic, but slowly.”
“But the outer areas are [still] very Republican … So I’m not entirely ready to conclude this unambiguously pushes the state in a bluer, more purple direction,” continued the director.
Coleman claimed, “Just by virtue of not having much of a coastline, it can’t attract many of those types of conservative retirees.”
“Which kind of was a net plus for Democrats,” concluded the analyst.
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